By-elections today

Today in Stoke is opposites day!

If you really like Labour then vote Ukip to oust Corbyn and get your party back.
If you really like Ukip then vote Labour to oust Nuttall and get your party back.

Stoke is tricky to work out. It’s a previously safe Labour seat, or as we now call them in the Corbyn era, a marginal seat. But there are so many conflicting variables it’s impossible to know which way it will go. Turnout is likely to be very low due to bad weather (60mph wind, anyone?) and bad candidates, which can amplify things in unexpected directions. We might even see the Tories or Lib Dems surging off the back of low turnout of the other parties. I have no predictions other than I don’t think Ukip will win, which I suppose means I think Labour will.

As for Copeland, I do think it’ll be a Tory win, even though the government taking a seat from the opposition at a by-election would be extraordinary.

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