Prediction: 62-38 remain victory.
Despite the polls having it at 50-50, this is, for once, a referendum/election I’m pretty confident that I’m going to be voting on the winning side of.
Why? Because the leave campaign hasn’t been very good at convincing people who weren’t already sure. The fact they’ve avoided laying down any plans for post-brexit and have avoided engaging with all the economic forecasts just means they simply aren’t convincing. Anyone who had a nagging doubt in their mind before the campaign started will have an even bigger nagging doubt now, and anyone who cares about their rent, their bills or their pension pot cares about the kind of economic stability that the leave campaign have shown no interest in preserving.
Overall, I think we’re in for a pretty safe remain victory, which is a bit anticlimactic.
Well, at least, I used to think that, then my mum told me she was voting out to stop the Syrian migrants. I explained to her that Syria isn’t in the EU, and she accepted this but seemed to regard it as a minor detail. Whatever she thinks she’s voting on, it’s not EU membership. My confidence has since dropped a bit. But I’m sticking with it.